Commercial registrations and activity
Light vehicle demand leaves heavy commercials behind
10 Oct 2025
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Fri 10 Oct 2025)
Very heavy registrations down 38%pa in Sep 2025 quarter
Medium registrations down 14%pa in Sep 2025 quarter
Light commercial registrations up 25%pa in Sep 2025 quarter
The key numbers...
- New very heavy commercial vehicle registrations in the September 2025 quarter were 38% lower than in the same quarter in 2024. The quarterly registration total of 414 brings September’s annual figure to 1,740, the lowest for this vehicle type in 12 years.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations in the September 2025 quarter were 14% lower than in the same quarter in 2024. The quarterly result of 490 registrations brought the annual total down to 1,690pa, the lowest in just under 12 years.
- New light commercial vehicle registrations rose 25% in the September 2025 quarter from a year ago. The quarterly total of 9,484 pushed the annual total to 32,469pa, the highest annual total in almost two years.
Light comms turning as heavy's lag behind
Three-month annual % change, by commercial vehicle type
...and our reaction
- Light commercial vehicles appear to have turned a corner in recent months. This improvement could be a function of a now extended period of better returns for the primary sector, resulting in purchasing of new vehicles after farmers first paid down debt.
- Medium and very heavy commercial vehicles continue to fall further, likely indicating a lull in orders following the significant recession in the June and September quarters in 2024.
- The downturn in the construction sector is also likely weighing on all vehicle types, to different extents. Construction businesses have been prioritising chasing limited and competitive tenders, reducing headcount and finding efficiencies, as opposed to renewing their fleets, unless out of necessity.
- The Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate to 2.5% this week, deeming there to be significant spare capacity in the economy to warrant a 50-basis-point cut to stimulate activity. This reduction could kick-start some purchasing of commercial vehicles from businesses that have been operating cautiously in recent quarters, but firms are still likely to be concerned about their revenue and profitability in the near term.
- Even if lower borrowing costs result in more purchasing during 2026, it will take some time to see a lift in medium and very heavy registrations due to the significant lags between order and registration.
Latest updates
Premium
Commercial registrations and activity
High diesel costs support lift in EV light commercials
Mon 13 Apr 2026
Quarterly
48%pa Light commercial registrations jump in the March 2026 month
-17%pa Medium commercial registration fall in the March 2026 quarter
-4.2%pa Very heavy comm. registrations fall in the March 2026 quarterPremium
Commercial registrations and activity
Medium and very heavy commercial registrations still falling
Tue 13 Jan 2026
Quarterly
Quarterly very heavy registrations down 26%pa in Dec 2025Quarterly medium registrations down 18%pa in Dec 2025Quarterly light commercial registrations up 9.5%pa in Dec 2025Commercial registrations and activity
Commercial vehicles lagging the economic recovery
Thu 10 Jul 2025
Quarterly
Very heavy registrations down 39%pa in June 2025 quarterMedium registrations down 40%pa in June 2025 quarterLight commercial registrations down 5.3%pa in June 2025 quarter