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The outlook for business activity
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Forecast in five - July 2026

Primary sector progress

Recapping Budget 2026 and the May MPS

3-3 Split vote as OCR remains on hold - for now

Unemployment down a touch to 5.3%

Forecast economic impact of the Iran War

Inflation unchanged at 3.1% in Q1 2026
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Forecast in five - April 2026

Hawkish hold for the OCR in April