Commercial registrations and activity
Medium and very heavy commercial registrations still falling
13 Jan 2026
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Tue 13 Jan 2026)
Quarterly very heavy registrations down 26%pa in Dec 2025
Quarterly medium registrations down 18%pa in Dec 2025
Quarterly light commercial registrations up 9.5%pa in Dec 2025
The key numbers...
- New very heavy commercial vehicle registrations in the December 2025 quarter were 26% lower than in the same quarter in 2024. The quarterly registration total of 342 was the lowest of any three-month period since early 2013. The annual total of 1,618 continues to fall further, sitting at levels last seen in mid-2013.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations in the December 2025 quarter were 18% lower than in the same quarter in 2024. The quarterly result of 364 registrations brought the annual total down to 1,610pa, the lowest since mid-2014.
- New light commercial vehicle registrations rose 9.5% in the December 2025 quarter from a year ago. The quarterly total of 7,975 pushed the annual total to 33,162pa, rising above 33,000pa for the first time since December 2024.
Decline in very heavy comms catching up to mediums
Annual running total, new commercial vehicle registrations by type
...and our reaction
- Very heavy commercial vehicle registrations had been lagging the downward trend in medium commercials which has occurred since mid-2023, but have now caught up, following deep declines during 2025. The patchy economic recovery during 2025 is likely to weigh on a recovery in medium and very heavy commercial registrations despite both sitting at more-than-decade lows.
- Light commercial vehicle registrations were slightly stronger than forecast but the upward trend is starting to soften – as expected. Recent lifts in light commercial demand might pull back a touch as dairy prices have pulled back significantly since May 2025.
- Recent GDP data for the September 2025 quarter showed businesses increased investment spending, particularly on plant and machinery. Businesses may also begin to invest in new commercial vehicles, but it remains difficult to predict what a ‘normal’ level of registrations is following strong levels of purchasing during 2022-24 and anecdotes from the industry that newer vehicles on the road are lasting longer.
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