Commercial registrations and activity

High diesel costs support lift in EV light commercials

13 Apr 2026

Brad Olsen

Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 13 Apr 2026)

Light commercial registrations

Medium commercial registration

Very heavy comm. registrations

48%pa

-17%pa

-4.2%pa

Jump in the March 2026 month

Fall in the March 2026 quarter

The key numbers...

Light commercial vehicle registrations leapt 28%pa in the March 2026 quarter, totalling 10,067, the highest quarterly total in six months. Although there were strong annual increases in January and February, the 48%pa lift seen in March was a key driver of the large increase overall.
This result saw the annual running total of light commercial vehicle registrations increase to just under 38,000pa, the highest total since September 2023.
As with passenger cars, there was a substantial lift in electric vehicles, including the full battery EV Geely Riddara, the PHEV BYD Shark 6, and a more than doubling of the non plug-in hybrid variant of the Toyota Hilux.
Medium commercial vehicle registrations totalled 500 in the March 2026 quarter, down 17%pa. A boost in new medium registrations in the month of March saw the largest annual percentage increase for this class since mid-2023.
Very heavy commercial vehicle registrations totalled 455 in the March 2026 quarter, down 4.2%pa, which was the best result – or at least smallest annual decline – in two years.

Download chart data

...and our reaction

Soaring fuel prices arising from the Middle East conflict, especially for diesel, heavily influenced buyer trends in the light commercial vehicle market in March, similar to the trends seen for passenger cars. The large increase in non-diesel light commercial registrations shows a jump in demand for lower operating cost vehicles in the current environment.
Although there is likely to be limited stock of non-diesel vehicles still available, we anticipate there could be more sustained higher demand for non-diesel light commercials in the months ahead, particularly from the primary sector. The considerably larger increase in diesel costs relative to petrol, coupled with the lower ability to reduce fuel use in a business setting, could support sustained higher non-diesel registrations. Still strong primary sector pay-outs, and the large Fonterra capital payment, are likely to support that argument even more in provincial and rural New Zealand.
Both medium and very heavy commercial registrations are showing signs of stabilising at lower levels, and potentially turning a corner. Heavy commercial registrations are coming off a high base, which has seen greater levels of fleet renewal towards more efficient vehicles, which will likely elongate usual fleet renewal trends.
Continued stronger trends in the primary sector, and previously improving retail trends, may well have been setting the conditions for a slow recovery in medium and very heavy registrations before the Middle East conflict. However, high fuel prices and heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook could undermine businesses’ investment intentions in the short term.

Latest updates

Premium

Commercial registrations and activity

High diesel costs support lift in EV light commercials

The key numbers...

...and our reaction

Latest updates

Commercial registrations slip back a bit further

Commercial registrations pull back following fuel price uncertainty

Medium and very heavy commercial registrations still falling