Articles

New Zealand enters 2026 with its long-anticipated economic recovery still looking unconvincing, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Despite lower interest rates, more focus on government investment, and historically high export incomes, indicators show momentum remains fragile.

After two years of sluggish activity, households under pressure, and repeatedly deferred expectations of recovery, 2026 is shaping up as a pivotal year for the New Zealand economy.

Inflation is often discussed as a single headline number, but how price pressures are experienced by households depends heavily on what is getting more expensive.

A stream of end-of-year data coming through shows, on the surface, a generally more upbeat view of the economy.

This article describes the revisions we have made to our historical estimates of regional GDP, and industry and occupation employment in the Regional Economic Profile and Sector Profile and what they mean for you.

Surging net migration in late 2023 and falling mortgage rates in late 2024 led several forecasters to predict a strong recovery in house prices during each of the following years.

The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets was the same in the year to December as it was in November, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 2.4% increase in what suppliers charged in December 2025, compared to a year earlier.

Financial markets have gone on a bit of a tear recently, shifting from one extreme to the other and now seeing interest rate hikes coming sooner and stronger than either the Reserve Bank’s or economists’ expectations.

Economic data doesn’t usually feature on the Christmas wish list, but it does have a habit of showing up at the checkout. For many households, the festive season is as much about budgets as it is about BBQs, pavlovas, and full fridges for visiting family.

Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan has penned Infometrics’ traditional Christmas Carol. Sung to the tune of Frank Sinatra's Christmas song “Let it Snow”.