Commercial registrations and activity
Commercial vehicles lagging the economic recovery
10 Jul 2025
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Thu 10 Jul 2025)
Very heavy registrations down 39%pa in June 2025 quarter
Medium registrations down 40%pa in June 2025 quarter
Light commercial registrations down 5.3%pa in June 2025 quarter
The key numbers...
- New very heavy commercial vehicle registrations in the June 2025 quarter were 39% lower than in the same quarter in 2024. Quarterly registrations of 398 were below 400 for just the second time since early 2021.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations in the June 2025 quarter were 40% lower than in the same quarter in 2024. The weak quarter dragged the annual total to 1,773, below 2,000pa for the first time since March 2021. The annual total is also at its lowest level since late 2015.
- There were 7,888 new light commercial vehicles registered in the June 2025 quarter, which was 5.3% lower than the same quarter in 2024. The annual total for the year to June 2025 was 29,920, falling below 30,000pa for the first just the second time since 2014 (the other time occurring a year ago).
Very heavy following mediums trend
New heavy comm. vehicle registrations, annual running totals
...and our reaction
- New very heavy commercial registrations continued to trend lower in the June quarter, driving the annual total lower at a similar pace to mediums, with a slight lag. The annual total of new heavy commercials (1,996) has fallen to a four-year low.
- Global trade uncertainty will still be front of mind for businesses looking to renew or expand their fleet of commercial vehicles. This week, tariff talk from the US administration returned, but the tariffs under discussion have been less widespread than on ”Liberation Day” in April. The 90-day pause deadline has been extended from 8 July to 1 August, which might simply extend the pause to investment that some businesses have been taking recently.
- During the quarter, the government announced the Investment Boost tax incentive, which allows businesses to immediately deduct 20% of the purchase price of new capital (including vehicles new to the country), which could alter the outlook for some vehicle types. We will provide an updated perspective on commercial vehicle registrations in our latest transport forecasts, to be published next week on 18 July.
Latest updates
Premium
Commercial registrations and activity
Medium and very heavy commercial registrations still falling
Tue 13 Jan 2026
Quarterly
Quarterly very heavy registrations down 26%pa in Dec 2025Quarterly medium registrations down 18%pa in Dec 2025
Quarterly light commercial registrations up 9.5%pa in Dec 2025Premium
Commercial registrations and activity
Light vehicle demand leaves heavy commercials behind
Fri 10 Oct 2025
Quarterly
Very heavy registrations down 38%pa in Sep 2025 quarterMedium registrations down 14%pa in Sep 2025 quarterLight commercial registrations up 25%pa in Sep 2025 quarterCommercial registrations and activity
Annual decline across all commercial vehicle sales
Thu 10 Apr 2025
Quarterly
Light commercial registrations down 28%pa in March 2025 quarterMedium registrations down 41%pa in March 2025 quarterVery heavy registrations down 41%pa in March 2025 quarter