Articles

Oil prices are climbing again, raising fresh concerns about the durability of New Zealand’s economic recovery.

A year ago, we were critical of the government’s assertion that there was plenty of public sector activity taking place in the construction industry, and that the downturn was solely due to a lack of private sector work.

Chicken has well and truly ruled the roost in New Zealand, with the amount processed for local consumption hitting a record high in 2026. Our growing appetite for poultry isn’t just a matter of changing tastes either – the economics are increasingly hard to ignore.

New Zealand’s migration story is starting to shift again. Net migration remains well below the extraordinary highs of recent years, but fewer people are leaving, more Kiwis are returning home, and some of the traditional destinations for New Zealanders are looking less attractive than they once did.

How is your sector performing? How many people does it employ? Is productivity improving? What occupations and skills are most important to its future? And what does the outlook look like over the next five years?

The June 2026 quarter was a costly one for New Zealand businesses. The surge in global fuel prices through March and April flowed rapidly through the economy, pushing up operating costs, freight charges, construction prices, and the cost of a range of oil-linked products.

A 53% spike in diesel costs, due to global oil supply disruption caused by the Iran War, was the attention-grabbing number for transport firms in the June 2026 quarter.

The New Zealand economy appears to have weathered the fuel price shock and wider geopolitical disruption of 2026 better than initially feared. Compared with prior to the Iran War, fuel prices remain elevated and inflation pressures have intensified, but both have eased from their peaks.

New Zealand’s economy continued to recovery solidly at the start of 2026, ahead of the economic storm triggered by the Iran War, according to Infometrics’ latest monitoring of regional economies. Provisional estimates from the Infometrics March 2026 Quarterly Economic Monitor suggests that economic activity rose 0.7%pa in the March 2026 quarter, and up 0.4%pa over the year to March 2026.

The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in July was slower than the prior month, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 1.9% increase in what suppliers charged in July 2026, compared with a year earlier.