Articles

Nationwide average house prices are still sitting about 15% below their 2021 peak, falling during 2022 and 2023 as mortgage rates rose, and then largely tracking sideways over the last 2½ years.

New Zealand’s economic recovery is building momentum, with higher activity in all but one region in the December 2025 quarter, according to Infometrics’ latest monitoring of regional economies.

Eighteen months ago in August 2024, the Government introduced a traffic light system and new sanctions for beneficiaries who do not meet their obligations. Here we look at how the number of benefit sanctions has changed since the measures were introduced, unpack which groups are over-represented in the sanctions numbers, and discuss whether the policy has worked.

Buried amongst the numerous post-census data releases is a low profile yet critical release – the post enumeration survey (PES). From the PES, Stats NZ revises their historical population estimates.

The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets moderated slightly in the year to January, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 2.3% increase in what suppliers charged in January 2026, compared to a year earlier.

Freight volumes provide one of the clearest real-time signals of activity in the New Zealand economy.

Freight volumes provide one of the clearest real-time signals of activity in the New Zealand economy.

The housing market had a soft-ish finish to 2025, with stock levels still elevated, monthly sales roughly in line with the average of the last year, and prices down 0.4% since the end of 2024.

New Zealand enters 2026 with its long-anticipated economic recovery still looking unconvincing, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Despite lower interest rates, more focus on government investment, and historically high export incomes, indicators show momentum remains fragile.

After two years of sluggish activity, households under pressure, and repeatedly deferred expectations of recovery, 2026 is shaping up as a pivotal year for the New Zealand economy.