Our take on the latest Tourism data (Fri 15 Aug 2025)
Tourism arrivals fell 2.5% in June from May 2025 (seasonally adjusted)
Tourism departures rose 2.4% in June from May 2025 (seasonally adjusted)
Tourism arrivals at 87% of pre-pandemic levels in June 2025
The key numbers...
- June marks the second month in a row of falling tourism arrivals. Tourism arrivals in June were down 2.5% from May, which was 0.5% down from April, all on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Although year-end growth in arrivals is still positive, at 5.0%, arrivals have stuck at 87% of pre-pandemic levels for the past three months, which is no better than the post-COVID level of activity first seen in February 2024.
- Growth in arrivals slowed for most major markets in June. Within the top 10 markets, only the UK and Singapore posted appreciable growth, with arrivals up 12% and 23% from June 2024 respectively. Arrivals from Canada edged up 0.1%, but arrivals from the US eased 1.6%. The US is still firmly our second largest tourism market, with US arrivals in June 50% higher than Chinese arrivals, currently our third-largest market.
- Departures of NZ tourists rose 2.4% in June 2025 from May, reaching 105% of pre-pandemic levels.
Tourism recovery at 87% in June
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- New Zealand’s tourism recovery appears to be stalling, with arrivals stuck at 87% of pre-pandemic levels for the past three months, and growth slowing across most markets. A weaker outlook for global growth could be adversely affecting consumer behaviours, and doubly so in our second-largest market, the US.
- Growth in international tourism had been propping up economic activity in many regional tourism markets, as domestic tourism spending has been falling for the past two years. However, as international growth dries up, the overall tourism spend could start to contract.
- New flights to Australia from Hamilton and Dunedin commenced in June, the first scheduled international flights for these ports since before the pandemic. Inbound tourists made up 56% of arrivals on these flights, a promising early indication that the inbound tourism benefit of these flights could balance out any loss from more Kiwis heading overseas.
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