Our take on the latest Tourism data (Thu 14 May 2026)
Tourism arrivals
Chinese visitor arrivals
Tourism arrivals at 94%
11%pa20%pa
Over the three months to Mar 2026
In March 2026
Of pre-pandemic levels in year to Mar 2026
The key numbers...
- International visitor arrivals rose 11% in the three months to March 2026, compared to March 2025, bringing arrivals growth in the year to March 2026 up to 15%pa. Arrivals fell 3.0% in March 2026 from February 2026 (seasonally adjusted), but this drop reflects the strength of the Lunar New Year in February and its unusual seasonal pattern.
- Australia continues to drive our tourism recovery, with March arrivals up 21%pa, accounting for half of the overall increase in arrivals. Strong growth from China (20%pa) and the United Kingdom (19%pa), coupled with moderate growth from United States (8.3%pa), together accounted for one third of the overall increase.
- Southern airports continue to lead the tourism recovery, with Queenstown arrivals rising 27%pa in March 2026 and Christchurch arrivals up by 24%pa. Growth in Auckland (9.5%pa) and Wellington (4.3%) was more moderate. New international services to Hamilton and Dunedin have only been running for 10 months, and together they accounted for 1.0% of March 2026 arrivals.
- Departures of New Zealand citizens picked up in March, up 8.6%pa from March 2025, and up 4.0% in total over the year to March 2026.
...and our reaction
- International visitor arrivals totalled 94% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels in the year to March 2026.However, this figure could be a high-water mark, as disruption from the Iran War starts to constrain further recovery in 2026.
- Visitors from China accounted for 8.2% of all visitor arrivals in the year to March 2026, China’s highest share since 2020. However, there is still room for growth, with Chinese arrivals in the year to March 2026 totalling 68% of pre-pandemic levels. Since November 2025, Chinese travellers have been allowed to visit New Zealand visa-free, if arriving via Australia. This option appears to be contributing to increasing momentum in the Chinese tourism recovery, with 40% of Chinese arrivals in the five months to March 2026 coming via Australia, compared to 25% in the five months to March 2025.
- March 2026 is the first month of tourism data to show disruption from the Iran War, with a sharp fall in direct flights from the Middle East. However, the loss of direct flights hasn’t affected overall arrivals for key markets, as airlines do their best to re-route long haul flights, enabling United Kingdom arrivals to continue growing in March.
- We still expect higher oil prices and airfares to dampen demand from long-haul markets from mid-2026. However, the weak New Zealand dollar is a potential upside, boosting purchasing power for visitors from short-haul and medium-haul markets like Australia.
Latest updates
Premium
Tourism data
Visitor arrivals slip but broader recovery continues
Tue 14 Jul 2026
Monthly
1.8% Tourism arrivals In May 2026 from Apr 2026 (seasonally adjusted)6.7%pa Tourism arrivals in May 202627%pa Chinese visitor arrivals in May 2026Premium
Tourism data
Visitor arrivals up 8.0%pa, driven by China
Fri 12 Jun 2026
Monthly
2.3% Tourism arrivals In Apr 2026 from Mar 2026 (seasonally adjusted)52%pa Chinese visitor arrivals in April 2026Tourism arrivals at 94% of pre-pandemic levels in year to Apr 2026Tourism data
Chinese visitors boost arrivals in February
Tue 14 Apr 2026
Monthly
8.5%pa Tourism arrivals rise over the three months to Feb 202648%pa Chinese visitor arrivals rise over the three months to Feb 2026Tourism arrivals at 92% of pre-pandemic levels in year to Feb 2026