Our take on the latest Tourism data (Fri 12 Jun 2026)
Tourism arrivals
Chinese visitor arrivals
Tourism arrivals at 94%
2.3%52%pa
In Apr 2026 from Mar 2026 (seasonally adjusted)
In April 2026
Of pre-pandemic levels in year to Apr 2026
The key numbers...
- International visitor arrivals rose 2.3% in April 2026, from March 2026, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This growth brings arrivals up 8.0%pa from April 2025, amounting to 94% of pre-pandemic levels (April 2019).
- China accounted for half the increase in visitor arrivals in April, with 11,103 more Chinese arrivals in April 2026 compared to April 2025. Australian arrivals rose 5,505, and United States arrivals rose 3,075. Together, these three countries made up 93% of April’s annual visitor arrival increase. Chinese arrivals amounted to 76% of pre-pandemic levels in the year to April 2026, well behind Australia (102%) and United States (105%), indicating further room for recovery in Chinese arrivals.
- Christchurch Airport continues to lead growth in international visitor arrivals, with an 18%pa increase in April 2026, well ahead of Auckland (4.5%pa), Queenstown (4.4%pa), and Wellington (-9.3%pa).
- Departures of New Zealand citizens eased in April, down 1.1%pa from March 2026 (seasonally adjusted) and down 4.9%pa from April 2025.
...and our reaction
- International visitor arrivals continue to grow steadily, with 8.0%pa growth. Arrivals from China have driven growth, with impressive 52%pa growth in April 2026, bringing annual growth up to 24%pa for the year ending April 2026. This lift appears to be driven by the introduction of a visa-free travel scheme for Chinese visitors travelling to New Zealand via Australia. The scheme is a trial, due to end in October 2026, but given the impressive results so far, we’d expect it to be continued.
- Given the typical lag between making bookings and travelling, we are yet to see a wholesale effect from the Iran War on arrivals. However, arrivals from Europe fell 22%pa in April 2026, which is likely to reflect flight disruption through the Middle East more than higher airfares. We expect the effect of higher oil prices on airfares and therefore demand is likely to manifest in coming months.
- As arrivals from Europe pull back, growth is increasingly concentrated in New Zealand’s top-three markets of Australia, the United States, and China. At current growth rates, China could overtake the United States to reclaim its place as the second-largest market in a little over a year.
- Departures of New Zealand citizens tend to be more volatile than international visitor arrivals, so softness is April isn’t entirely out of character with the past 12 months. April’s softness could include the early effects of the Iran War, but it’s too soon to call.
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