Our take on the latest Tourism data (Thu 10 Jul 2025)
Tourism arrivals fell 0.9% in May from April 2025 (seasonally adjusted)
Annual tourism arrivals up 5.2% in year to May 2025
Tourism arrivals at 87% of pre-pandemic levels in May 2025
The key numbers...
- Tourism arrivals were weak in May, down 0.9% from April 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, modest growth was recorded in prior months, with arrivals in the three months to May 2025 up 3.3%pa, and 6.1%pa in the year to May.
- Recovery of arrivals from China has been sluggish, reaching just 59% of pre-pandemic levels in the year to May 2025. However, arrivals from China rose 17%pa in May, impressive growth from our third largest market. Arrivals from the USA, our second largest market, continue to grow strongly, up 8.5%pa in May.
- There were 280,559 departures of NZ tourists in May, up 1.7%pa from April, equating to 102% of pre-pandemic levels, with departures above pre-pandemic levels every month in 2025 so far.
Tourism recovery at 87% in May
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- New Zealand’s tourism recovery continues to grind slowly. With tourist arrivals in the year to May 2025 at 87% of pre-pandemic levels, it will be several years of slow growth until arrivals return to pre-pandemic levels. A weak outlook for global growth could put consumers into their shells and slow tourism growth further.
- Changes to US trade and foreign policy are yet to have a perceptible effect on tourist arrivals to New Zealand, with US arrivals still growing. However, arrivals from Canada have picked up, with double-digit annual growth in April and May, which could be an early sign of Canadian tourists looking for destinations outside the US.
- Flight connectivity between New Zealand and Australia continues to grow, with new routes to Cairns and the Gold Coast already underway, and new routes to Adelaide and Perth coming soon. In coming months, we will see whether these routes attract more inbound tourism than outbound tourism.
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