Commercial registrations and activity

Annual decline across all commercial vehicle sales

10 Apr 2025

Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Thu 10 Apr 2025)

Light commercial registrations down 28%pa in March 2025 quarter

Medium registrations down 41%pa in March 2025 quarter

Very heavy registrations down 41%pa in March 2025 quarter

There were 7,209 new light commercial vehicles registered in the March 2025 quarter, which was 28% lower than the same quarter in 2024. The annual total for the year to March 2025 was 30,365, and the annual total is at risk of slipping below 30,000 in coming months for just the second time since 2014.
New medium commercial vehicle registrations fell 41%pa in the December quarter, falling for the seventh consecutive quarter to 376, and below 400 for the first time since June 2020. The annual total in the year to March 2025 was just 2,022, the lowest annual total in four years.
New very heavy commercial vehicle registrations in the March 2025 quarter were down 41% from the same quarter in 2024. The annual total continued to trend down towards the 2,000pa mark, totalling 2,246.

3m annual % change, new light commercial registrations

The annual total of new light commercial vehicle registrations returned to declines after a short-lived rise in the December 2024 quarter, and it is now down 3.0%pa from the year to March 2024. Improved commodity prices across the agricultural sector provide some upside for light commercial registrations going forward. However, there is likely to be some reluctance from potential buyers to make big-ticket purchases in the near term given global trade uncertainty.
New very heavy and medium commercial registrations continue to track lower in line with the economic downturn since the beginning of 2024. Although some bright sparks have begun to emerge with economic growth returning in late 2024, boosted by stronger meat, dairy and horticulture prices, this shift will take some time to turn into investment, and it will take even longer to show up in registrations of these vehicle types due to long lead times.
Interest rates have continued to come down over the past nine months, with the official cash rate sitting two percentage points lower at 3.5%. This fall in interest rates has coincided with soaring business confidence, which has remained strong to date despite global trade uncertainty. We will provide an updated perspective on commercial vehicle registrations as we publish our latest transport forecasts next week on 17 April.

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