Our take on the latest Tourism data (Mon 17 Feb 2025)
Tourism arrivals at 89% of pre-pandemic levels in Dec month
US now our second-largest tourist market
Chinese arrivals only at 61% recovery in 2024 - raising questions of if this market will recover
The key numbers...
- Tourism arrivals rose a strong 12%pa in December to end the year on a high, with nearly 470,000 visitors.
- This result was 89% of December 2019 (pre-pandemic levels) – the strongest monthly recovery since May, and well ahead of the 79% recovery rate seen in December 2023.
- Over the 2024 year, tourist arrivals into New Zealand totalled 3.3m, sitting at 85% of pre-pandemic levels, up from the 76% recovery seen over the 2023 year. However, departures of Kiwi tourists overseas has been stronger, with annual Kiwi tourist departures at 98% of pre-pandemic levels over 2024.
- Arrivals across different markets showed mixed results. Australian tourist arrivals rose 17%pa in December, to 96% of pre-pandemic levels. Chinese arrivals rose 13%pa too, but only back to 60% of pre-pandemic levels. There were some noticeable increases in Japanese and European visitors too.
- US visitor arrivals rose 17%pa in December, to sit 7% higher than the same month in 2019. Over the 2024 calendar year, the US cemented itself as New Zealand’s second-largest tourist market, with just over 11% of the total market.
US market recovers, other markets still recovering
Annual tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- December capped off a solid year for tourism, with a 12% lift in arrivals compared to 2023. Although much of 2024 showed the tourism recovery levelling out, the last two months shows some signs of an acceleration in the recovery again.
- Although the overall recovery is solid, the results out of different markets is mixed, and the outlook for markets is likely to reinforce current trends into 2025.
- The fact that Chinese tourist arrivals over 2024 were only at 61% of pre-pandemic levels – still the poorest recovery of all major markets – raises some major questions over if the market will recover towards pre-pandemic levels at all.
- Stronger activity out of the US, and more recently a better exchange rate for American travellers to New Zealand, have supported the strong recovery from this market, and we expect that momentum to continue into 2025.
- A flurry of announcements from government recently have sought to target tourism growth, with a recent half-a-million dollar advertising campaign targeting the Australian market, and the digital nomads visa announcement looking to entice foreign (often US-based) digital workers.
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