Our take on the latest Tourism data (Thu 23 Jan 2025)
Tourism arrivals rose just 5.9%pa in November 2024
Total arrivals at 86% of pre-pandemic levels
Christchurch Airport arrivals at 83% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- Tourism arrivals totalled 321,216 in November 2024, up 5.9%pa from November 2023. Arrivals in November 2024 equated to 86% of pre-pandemic levels, marking six consecutive months of arrival numbers above 85% of pre-pandemic levels for the first time.
- Tourism arrivals from Australia remained solid at 123,275, up 13%pa from November 2023. Arrivals from Australia equated to 95% of pre-pandemic levels and have been above 90% of pre-pandemic levels for four consecutive months.
- Tourism arrivals from China began to recover in the second half of 2023 but remain volatile month-to-month. There were 20,683 tourism arrivals from China in November, up 3.1%pa from November 2023. Tourism arrivals from China equated to just 53% of pre-pandemic levels and have fluctuated between 40-92% in 2024.
- Christchurch Airport arrivals have taken slightly longer to recover than Auckland Airport arrivals, but equated to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, just a few percentage points lower than the 85% of pre-pandemic levels of Auckland Airport. Queenstown has stayed above pre-pandemic levels for over two-years now, excluding a small blip of 98% in July 2023, bucking the trend seen across the other major New Zealand airports.
Tourism recovery hovering around 85%
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- Departures of NZ tourists remained around pre-pandemic levels (99%) after reaching 100% of pre-pandemic levels in October for the first time since March 2024. Kiwis are showing willingness to travel overseas despite the current cost-of-living pressures and rising labour market pressures.
- The average length of stay in the year to November 2024 was 13 days, down from 18 days in the year to November 2019 (pre-pandemic). The average length of stay in November was the lowest monthly average length relative to pre-pandemic levels at just 72%. The annual average has ticked down further to 20 days after remaining at 23 over the first half of 2024.
- The difficulties in the Chinese economy will continue to show through tourism arrival numbers for the foreseeable future despite China miraculously reaching its mandated 5.0% GDP growth target in 2024. With arrivals from China sitting at just above 50% of pre-pandemic levels, it is difficult to see a recovery to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.
- Yesterday Minister for Economic Growth Nicola Willis expressed her focus on driving tourism numbers. Minister Willis outlined the next steps the government will look to take with new Tourism Minister Louise Upston taking a look at current funding allocations for tourism before looking at visa processing and marketing campaigns. Policy changes will take some time to translate into further improvements in tourism arrivals. We continue to monitor changes to tourism regulations and incorporate these into our forecasts.
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