Commercial registrations and activity
Weak demand for commercial vehicles continues
10 Oct 2024
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Thu 10 Oct 2024)
Very heavy registrations down 19%pa in September 2024 quarter
Medium registrations down 15%pa in September 2024 quarter
Light commercial registrations up 47%pa in September 2024 quarter
The key numbers...
- There were 7,602 new light commercial vehicles registered in the September 2024 quarter, 47%pa higher than the same quarter in 2023. The annual total of 30,824 new light commercial vehicles was still 12% below the year to September 2023.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations fell for the fifth consecutive quarter, down 15%pa from September 2023 to 573. The annual total of new medium commercial registrations fell to 2,490 in September, below 2,500 for the first time since November 2021.
- New very heavy commercial vehicle registrations fell 19%pa in the September 2024 quarter compared to a year earlier. Apart from a blip in April, the annual total of new very heavy commercial vehicle registrations has been falling since January 2024. The annual total in September 2024 was 2,767, the lowest since early 2023.
Light commercial registrations remain low
Annual running total, new light commercial vehicles
...and our reaction
- Light commercial vehicle registrations in the September 2023 quarter were extremely low, which was a hangover from a rush to avoid higher fees from changes to the Clean Car discount as of 1 July 2023. Thus, the annual growth rate in the September 2024 quarter has been artificially inflated by last year’s unusually low result.
- Business confidence has spiked in recent months as the Reserve Bank has started to cut interest rate. With borrowing rates coming down as interest rates are cut, businesses will have improved financing conditions to purchase new commercial vehicles, but until conditions materially improve for households, weak demand conditions are likely to defer potential purchases of new commercial vehicles from businesses.
- Builders continue to face a weak outlook as residential consent numbers have remained poor, and the pipeline of previously consented work is drying up. At best, recent interest rate cuts will take several quarters to flow through into increased building activity, in the meantime, reduced profits will limit the ability to invest in new vehicles.
- The economy’s effects on very heavy commercial registrations are starting to appear - effects that have been delayed compared to other commercial vehicle types due to the long lead times for very heavy trucks. The annual running total for very heavy registrations has hit its lowest point in over a year and a half.
- As economic conditions remain muted, weak domestic freight activity will continue to weigh on medium and very heavy commercial registrations figures.
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