Our take on the latest Tourism data (Wed 10 Jul 2024)
Total arrivals at 82% of pre-pandemic levels
Chinese arrivals slip to 50% of pre-pandemic levels
US arrivals at 83% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- Tourism arrivals in May were up 12% from May 2023 and recorded their third-strongest month (seasonally adjusted) since the pandemic. However, arrivals were still only at 82% of pre-pandemic levels, in line with the average figure of the last year.
- The Chinese market remains a key drag on tourism’s recovery, with arrivals in May at just 50% of pre-pandemic levels. This figure represents a softening from the 56% average maintained over the last year.
- Arrivals from the United States exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first three months of 2024, but they have softened to 82-83% of pre-pandemic levels over the last two months.
- Australian arrivals lifted to 89% of pre-pandemic levels in May, continuing the strengthening over the last few months that was only interrupted in April by the earlier timing of Easter this year.
- Fijian and Indian tourist numbers continue to comfortably surpass pre-pandemic levels, sitting at 154% and 120% respectively in May and having been consistently strong since early 2023. Taiwan’s arrival numbers reached 105% of pre-pandemic levels, topping their 2019 result for the first time since the borders reopened.
Chinese tourism numbers remain weaker
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- Sluggish global growth and high ticket prices mean the tourism recovery seems to be stagnating at about 80-85% of pre-pandemic arrival numbers. Low Chinese arrival numbers, due to the weak Chinese economy and a possible decline in the popularity of New Zealand as a holiday destination, are particularly limiting the broader pick-up.
- Although May’s annual growth was relatively strong, at 12%, future growth numbers are likely to be slower, as monthly arrival numbers from June 2023 onwards have largely tracked sideways.
- Persistently underwhelming tourism arrival figures reiterate that interest rate and cost-of-living pressures are not unique to us, but are rather a global phenomenon. However, the more expensive long-haul nature of flights to New Zealand is limiting the tourism recovery beyond trans-Tasman travel, as people typically holiday closer to home when times are tough.
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