Commercial registrations and activity
Commercial registrations down across the board
10 Jul 2024
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Wed 10 Jul 2024)
Light commercial registrations down 26%pa in June 2024 quarter
Very heavy registrations down 8.2%pa in June 2024 quarter
Medium registrations down 18%pa in June 2024 quarter
The key numbers...
- There were 8,333 new light commercial vehicles registered in the June 2024 quarter, 26%pa lower than the same quarter in 2023. The annual total of 28,393 new light commercial vehicles is the smallest since May 2014.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations fell for the fourth consecutive quarter, down 18%pa to 629 in June 2024 compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The annual total of 2,590 new medium commercial vehicle registrations has not been lower since January 2022.
- New very heavy commercial vehicle registrations fell 8.0%pa in the June 2024 quarter compared to a year earlier. The annual total of new very heavy commercial vehicle registrations looks to have peaked at 3,037 in January and has slipped back to a 12-month low of 2,927.
Light commercial registrations continue weakening
Annual running total
...and our reaction
- Light commercial vehicle registrations in the June 2023 quarter were inflated by the rush to avoid higher fees under the Clean Car Discount. Changes to the scheme on 1 July 2023 saw the maximum fee for high-emissions vehicles increases by $1,525 for new vehicles and $575 for used imports.
- Builders have faced weakening construction activity, with residential consent numbers continuing to weaken as sustained high interest rates limit demand. Lower consent figures are limiting the pipeline of available work, reducing profits, hitting cashflow, and limiting the ability to invest in new vehicles.
- Weak economic conditions continue to hamper business confidence. Businesses are reluctant to purchase new commercial vehicles with higher borrowing rates, cost pressures, and revenue concerns due to weak household spending.
- Weaker domestic freight activity is weighing on medium commercial registrations. The economic effects on very heavy commercial registrations appear to be more muted, in part due to a recent strengthening in export volumes. However, longer lead times for very heavy trucks could also mean that the downturn in registrations could intensify in coming quarters.
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