Tourism data
Arrivals numbers lowest compared to pre-pandemic levels since May 2023
12 Jun 2024
Our take on the latest Tourism data (Wed 12 Jun 2024)
Total arrivals (ex China & Aus) at 75% of pre-pandemic levels
Departure numbers dip below pre-pandemic levels
Fijian and Indian markets remain above pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- Tourism arrivals totalled 225,024 in April 2024, up 1.7% from April 2023 and sitting at 73% of pre-pandemic levels, the weakest result relative to pre-pandemic levels since May 2023.
- Tourism arrivals excluding Chinese arrivals in April 2024 were at 75% of pre-pandemic levels, which is also the lowest relative month since March 2023.
- Australian arrivals were weaker in April, at 76% of pre-pandemic levels – the lowest month for Australian tourist arrivals relative to pre-pandemic levels since October 2022.
- Arrivals from the United States had begun the year with three consecutive months exceeding pre-pandemic levels, but the fell to 82% of pre-pandemic levels in April, the first time they have been below 90% since September 2023.
- Although several key tourism markets remain below pre-pandemic levels, a few have improved and held at stronger levels. Fijian arrivals have been ahead of 2019 levels since March 2023 and are currently at 112% of pre-pandemic levels, as are Indian arrivals (at 136%).
Easter causes dip in arrivals for most
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- The earlier timing of Easter this year has had an effect on our pre-pandemic comparisons, with Easter in 2019 not occurring until the second half of April.
- However, taking March and April figures together shows arrival numbers for the two months have slipped back to 82% of their 2019 level, in line with the average sustained between June 2023 and January 2024.
- Kiwi departure numbers settled in April down to 93% of pre-pandemic levels after exceeding relative levels during the first three months of the year. Easter is again a factor in this result, but weakness in the economy combined with higher ticket and fuel prices are also hampering overseas travel prospects.
- Chinese arrivals continue to be mixed. After a strong February, reaching 74% of pre-pandemic levels driven by Lunar New Year travel, March numbers fell to 42% before bouncing back to 59% in April.
- Arrivals from other key markets edged down slightly, reflecting high inflation and interest rate pressures which continue to hamper much of the developed world. Arrivals from the United Kingdom fell to the lowest relative level since August 2022 at 53% of pre-pandemic levels, and other key markets such as Japan and South Korea also fell slightly.
- Arrivals figures show that there’s still some way to go with the tourism recovery. Although we reached 90% of pre-pandemic levels in March, sustaining those levels remains an elusive target with global economic weakness.
- Overall, we maintain our view that tourism will continue a slow but steady recovery profile with some blips along the way.
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