Our take on the latest Tourism data (Mon 15 Apr 2024)
Chinese visitor arrivals in Feb 2024 had best month since Jan 2020
Total arrivals (ex China) at 89% of pre-pandemic levels
Fiji, India, US, and Malaysia markets above pre-pandemic levels already
The key numbers...
- Tourism arrivals totalled 362,836 in February 2024, up 35%pa from February 2023 and sitting at 87% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Stronger arrivals levels were driven by Lunar New Year travellers, with the 37,900 arrivals from China being nine times larger than arrivals in February 2023. This burst of arrivals in February was 75% of pre-pandemic levels, the strongest month so far for China since COVID-19.
- Tourism arrivals excluding Chinese arrivals in February 2024 were at 89% of pre-pandemic levels, which is also the highest relative month so far in the tourism recovery.
- Australian arrivals were stronger in February, at 87% of pre-pandemic levels – the third-best month for Australian tourist arrivals relative to pre-pandemic levels since the broader tourism reopening.
- Although several key tourism markets remain below pre-pandemic levels, a few have improved and held at stronger levels. Fiji arrivals have been ahead of 2019 levels since March 2023 and are currently at 140% of pre-pandemic levels, as are India (at 119%), the United States (107%), and Malaysia (105%).
Strong month for Chinese tourist arrivals
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- Tourism arrivals had a strong month in February 2024, with the Lunar New Year boost a large part of this lift – although there was more widespread support for arrival numbers across the board.
- Arrivals figures show that there’s still a long way to go with the tourism recovery – borders have now been fully open for over a year, and even reaching 90% of pre-pandemic arrivals remains an elusive milestone.
- Chinese arrivals, although higher for Lunar New Year, are still a quarter below pre-pandemic levels, reinforcing concerns about weaker Chinese spending appetites and a profound and sustained shift in holiday preferences.
- Arrivals from other key markets are still tracking up despite high inflation and interest rate pressures in much of the developed world. European markets are still relatively soft, but North American markets are continually stronger than pre-pandemic.
- Overall, we maintain our view that tourism will continue a slow but steady recovery profile.
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