Our take on the latest Tourism data (Thu 14 Mar 2024)
Monthly foreign tourist arrivals
326,427
In January 2024
Total arrivals rise slightly to 82% of pre-pandemic levels
United States arrivals lift to 128% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- There were 326,427 foreign tourist arrivals in January 2023, lifting the recovery from 79% of pre-pandemic levels in December 2023 to 82%.
- Australian arrivals improved one percentage point from December 2023 to 83% of pre-pandemic levels in January.
- The recovery of arrivals from China continued to deteriorate, easing from 53% of pre-pandemic levels in December to 47%, the weakest result since May last year.
- The recovery of arrivals from North America improved notably, with Canadian arrivals rising to 98% of pre-pandemic levels, and United States arrivals rising to 128%.
- Kiwi departures surpassed pre-COVID levels for the first time since the pandemic, reaching 104% of January 2019 levels.
Tourism recovery continues to hover around 80%
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- Total foreign arrival numbers remained fairly stagnant in January. Although January’s result was a slight improvement from December last year, the chart above illustrates the lack of meaningful upward momentum in the market.
- Arrivals from North America (which currently make up around one fifth of total arrivals) have performed well, now reaching or surpassing pre-pandemic levels. However, this improvement has been offset by sluggish results across other major markets.
- Similarly, Australian arrivals improved slightly in January but have been lumpy, remaining at around 80% of pre-pandemic levels since mid-2022.
- The recovery of Chinese arrivals has now reversed 22 percentage points from a peak of 69% of pre-pandemic levels in September 2023. We anticipate arrivals from China will remain weak during 2024 given the country’s economic struggles.
- The high interest rate environment globally will continue forcing households to tighten their belts, limiting the scope for further improvements in arrivals improvement during 2024.
- The recovery of Kiwi departures to 104% of pre-pandemic levels is encouraging, but it is worth noting that January and February are typically the weakest months for Kiwis to holiday overseas. A strong appetite for travel is evident, but cost-of-living challenges are likely to constrain departures from soaring past pre-pandemic levels this year.
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