Slower tourism recovery as Chinese arrivals slip

The recovery of tourism arrivals showed some signs of improvement in November. Mixed results from Australia and a declining recovery for China point to a moderate outlook for tourism in 2024.

China’s relatively slowly recovery has seen its share of tourism arrivals dip from 11% in November 2019, to just 6.6%. Tourism from China is likely to remain subdued into 2024 amid a struggling domestic economy.

Arrivals from Australia appear not to have recovered meaningfully over the last year. The outlook for the Australian economy over the next year is similar to New Zealand’s, with below-trend economic growth. Virgin Australia has recently expanded their regional travel options by nearly half, an additional downside risk if Australians increasingly opt to travel domestically.

Excluding Australia and China, tourism arrivals remained fairly flat in November at 86% of pre-pandemic levels. Pockets of momentum remain in North America and there is varied performance across Asia.

November was another strong month for Kiwi departures. Tougher economic conditions are expected to keep the recovery from soaring beyond pre-pandemic levels, but New Zealander’s appetite for travel is clear.