Commercial registrations and activity
Light commercials registrations plunge as very heavy trucks plateau
15 Jan 2024
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 15 Jan 2024)
Light commercial registrations record second-weakest month in almost 25 years
Very heavy registrations down 0.4% from Dec 2022 quarter
Medium registrations down 11% from Dec 2022 quarter
The key numbers...
- There were only 605 new light commercial vehicles registered in December, the lowest monthly total since January 1999 (excluding the first Covid lockdown in April 2020).
- Overall, there were 4,883 new light commercial vehicles registered in the December 2023 quarter, down 49% from a year ago.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations of 655 in the December quarter were down 11% from a year ago, continuing a trend of lower registrations recently.
- New very heavy commercial registration totalled 668 in the quarter, down 0.4% from the same period a year ago. On an annual basis, new registrations are sitting just below 3,000pa, and have been around this level for the last six months.
Clean Car Discount Scheme plays havoc with light commercial registrations
Monthly registrations, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Light commercial registration numbers have been severely affected by the removal of the Clean Car Discount Scheme at the end of 2023, which is encouraging buyers to postpone their purchases until the new year. In our forecasts, we had allowed for sales in the quarter to be down 24% from the December 2022 quarter, but the decline ended up being more than twice that drop, at 49%pa.
- We had expected a catch-up in activity during the first quarter of 2024, forecasting more than 11,900 new light commercial registrations, which would be a 34% jump from the first three months of 2023. A larger rebound might now occur, depending on whether the very weak registrations in recent months are solely due to changing government policy, or whether there is also weaker underlying demand at play – which is possible given downward pressure on agricultural export prices.
- Very heavy commercial registrations continue to perform more strongly than forecast, potentially reflecting long lead times for the supply of trucks from overseas, meaning that recently filled orders were placed when economic conditions were considerably stronger. The weaker economy suggests that very heavy registrations should trend downwards during 2024, and the December result saw quarterly registrations lower than a year earlier for the first time since September 2021.
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