Our take on the latest Tourism data (Tue 12 Dec 2023)
Foreign tourist arrivals total 226,000 in October
Arrivals ease to 80% of pre-pandemic levels
Kiwi departures ease to 90% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- The recovery in foreign tourist arrivals eased in October, from 86% of pre-pandemic levels in September, to 80%. Total arrival numbers rose just 0.5% from September, compared to an 8.4% increase in the same month in 2019.
- Chinese arrivals slipped from to 58% of pre-pandemic levels in October, an 11 percentage point decline from September. The recovery of arrivals from India and Japan fell 16 and 22 percentage points respectively.
- Australian arrivals eased from 89% of pre-pandemic levels in September, to 78% in October. This figure is the lowest point for Australian tourism recovery in twelve months.
- There were 251,000 Kiwi departures in October, 90% of pre-pandemic levels. Although this figure represents an eight percentage point slippage from September’s unusually strong result, October’s departures still point to a generally upward trajectory.
Recovery dips for Australia and China
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- Weaker recovery for Australia and key Asian markets drove down October’s result. Arrivals from Australia have been stuck at around 80% of pre-pandemic levels for about one year.
- The recovery of arrivals from countries excluding Australia and China eased from 87% of pre-pandemic levels in September, to 85%. There still remains small pockets of upward momentum, with the recovery of arrivals from North America and Germany improving in October.
- We expect arrivals from China, and the broader Asian region, to remain subdued as the country continues to battle economic headwinds.
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Continued cost-of-living challenges in Australia are likely suppressing the country’s tourism recovery. However, increased flight offerings in international travel are helping to boost competition, and could add some downward pressure to airfares.
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