Our take on the latest Tourism data (Wed 15 Nov 2023)
Foreign tourist arrivals total 224,900 in September
Arrivals from China jump to 69% of pre-pandemic levels
Kiwi departures rise to 98% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- The recovery in foreign tourist arrivals improved in September, lifting from 82% of pre-pandemic levels in August, to a post-COVID high of 86%. Total arrival numbers were up from August, counter to typical seasonal patterns, as Chinese tourism arrivals made an unexpected jump.
- There were 19,100 arrivals from China in September, the highest monthly arrival figure since travel was restricted in early 2020. This result delivered a 16 percentage point boost to the Chinese tourism recovery, from 53% of pre-pandemic levels in August, to 69%.
- Australian arrivals rose to 89% of pre-pandemic levels after remaining around 80% in July and August.
- United States arrivals slipped from 121% of pre-pandemic levels in August, to 81% in September. Aside from the large increase in July and August associated with the FIFA Women’s World Cup, United States arrivals had been hovering around 80% of pre-pandemic levels since February this year.
Tourism recovery driven by Aus and China
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- Strength in Australian and Chinese arrivals drove September’s slight bounce-back in tourism recovery, as the recovery from key markets such as North America, the United Kingdom, and India continued to stagnate.
- The recovery of tourism arrivals from countries excluding Australia and China eased from 92% of pre-pandemic levels in August, to 87%. Although the market is certainly closer to full recovery compared to earlier in the year, surging airfare costs (worsened by OPEC’s production cuts, which in turn reduced the global supply of aviation fuel) and still-high global inflation is limiting the scope of recovery over 2023.
- Conversely, higher long-haul airfares could be encouraging tourism from Australia, with a holiday to New Zealand increasingly favoured by Australians who would have normally travelled further.
- The growth in Chinese tourism is an encouraging sign, although China’s economic woes will likely keep arrival recovery supressed into 2024. Adding some upside to this outlook is recent research from the Asia Briefing group that points to a surge in interest in outdoor activities in China. Newsroom reported in July that the number of independent travellers is expected to lift as Chinese consumer trends shift – going into summer, New Zealand will be well positioned to attract an increased number of tourists interested in outdoor adventures.
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