Our take on the latest Tourism data (Wed 11 Oct 2023)
Foreign tourist arrivals total 206,800 in August
Total arrivals ease to 82% of pre-pandemic levels
US and Japanese arrivals remain strong despite end of World Cup
The key numbers...
- The recovery in foreign tourist arrivals slipped slightly in August, easing from 84% of pre-pandemic levels in July to 82%. Total arrival numbers were slightly lower than in July, consistent with typical seasonal patterns.
- Australian arrivals rose to 81% of pre-pandemic levels, a slight improvement from July. Aside from the spike to 89% of pre-pandemic levels in June, the recovery of Australian arrivals has been hovering around 80% since the beginning of the year.
- Arrivals from China, our second largest tourism market, slipped three percentage points to 53% of pre-pandemic levels in August.
- There was a significant reversal for the United States, which saw a massive boost in arrivals in July due to the FIFA Women’s World Cup. Arrivals from the United States slipped from 162% of pre-pandemic levels in July to 121% in August. However, the fact that arrivals remained above pre-pandemic levels after the World Cup suggests some underlying strength in tourism from the United States.
- Similarly, Japanese arrivals jumped to 72% in July over the World Cup and remained at this level in August, despite the end of the tournament.
Tourism recovery slumps in August
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
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Although arrivals from the United States and Japan showed resilience in August, these pockets of strength make little difference to total recovery numbers. Australia and China dominate our tourism market, and the trend across most markets remained fairly weak.
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Chinese arrivals stagnated in August, in contrast to the improving momentum of the previous three months. Expectations around the scope for Chinese tourism recovery over the remainder of 2023 are weakening as Chinese economic indicators continue to slump.
- As one of the world’s largest economies, the Chinese economic slowdown is expected to dampen global growth further over the rest of the year and into 2024. Additionally, OPEC has extended its production cuts, boosting oil prices to around US$95/bl, exacerbating already-high airfares. Together, these factors will limit arrivals growth going into summer.
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