Commercial registrations and activity
Light commercials registrations still soft
14 Sept 2023
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Thu 14 Sept 2023)
Total new commercial registrations down 26%pa in August
New light commercial registrations down 33%pa in August
Road user charge kilometres purchased down 22%pa
The key numbers...
- There were 2,548 new commercial vehicles registered in August, a 36% increase from July after accounting for seasonal factors. However, the month-on-month increase is misleading given changes to the Clean Car Discount scheme in July meant commercial registrations in July were exceptionally weak.
- There were 2,031 new light commercial registrations in August, a 48% increase from July on a seasonally adjusted basis, but still down 33% compared to August last year. With the exception of July, where there were 1,191 light commercials registered, August was the softest month for light commercials since April 2022 (the month immediately following the introduction of the Clean Car Discount scheme).
- There were 240 new medium commercials in August, a 15% increase from July on a seasonally adjusted basis. There were 277 very heavy commercials registered in August, a 20% decline from a very strong July (on a seasonally adjusted basis).
- Total road user charge kilometres purchased in August fell 22% from August 2022, primarily driven by the light commercial purchases, which fell 24% from last year. Purchases of medium and very heavy road user charge kilometres fell 10% and 9.8%pa respectively.
Light commercials remain soft in August
Monthly light commercial registrations, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- New commercial vehicle registrations remained soft in August, due to the Discount scheme changes introduced in July. The new Discount scheme settings continued to hit the light end of the commercial vehicle market hardest, with light commercials remaining particularly weak, at just 61% of usual levels seen over the first five months of 2023.
- As has happened previously, after a high month of purchasing as purchasing got in ahead of the changes, and a month of weakness after this build-up, commercial registrations have started to slowly recover. We expect light registrations will continue to increase in coming months, as they did over the second half of 2022 after the Clean Car Discount scheme was initially introduced in April 2022.
- Tougher economic conditions, including still-high inflation, higher interest rates, and lower construction activity could weigh on commercial vehicle registrations over the rest of 2023 and 2024.
- After recovering from the Discount scheme-induced dip, new light commercial registrations could plateau at a lower level compared to historical norms. This lower registration trend happened in the second half of 2022 and early 2023, when light commercials bounced back from the Discount scheme dip in April 2022, but remained slightly below 2018 and 2019 levels.
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