Our take on the latest Tourism data (Wed 12 Jul 2023)
Foreign tourist arrivals total 160,335 in May
Arrivals from Australia ease to 78% of pre-pandemic levels
Arrivals from China remain at 31% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- Foreign tourist arrivals reached 73% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels in May. Arrivals remain on a recovery path from pre-pandemic levels, but the 1.1 percentage point improvement from April was small compared to an average monthly gain of 3.3 percentage points over the last twelve months.
- Recovery from pre-pandemic levels showed mixed results across our major markets. Although the recovery from Australia, China, and North America stalled in May, arrivals from France, Germany, and the UK each lifted to over 60% of pre-pandemic levels.
- There was also a boost in visitor numbers from Malaysia and Japan, with arrivals reaching 83% and 68% of pre-pandemic levels respectively.
- The effect of a softening recovery path was felt most strongly at Queenstown Airport, where arrivals eased from 118% of pre-pandemic levels in April, to 112% in May.
- Despite monthly arrival numbers into all airports declining as we enter the off-season, arrivals into Auckland, Christchurch, and Wellington all improved slightly as a proportion of pre-pandemic levels.
- Kiwi departure numbers recorded their fourth consecutive softer month in May, slipping back to 84% of pre-pandemic levels
Both arrivals and departures stagnating
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
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The pace of recovery in tourism arrivals moderated in May, reinforcing our view that the global economic slowdown is taking momentum out of international tourism. We expect higher living costs and interest rates will keep a lid on Australian arrivals, which eased from 81% of pre-pandemic levels in April to 78% in May.
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Arrivals from China held steady at 31% of pre-pandemic levels in May, after a strong lift from 18% between March and April. Recent announcements of more direct flights between New Zealand and China should help to support Chinese arrival numbers over coming months.
- Kiwi departures are also continuing to stagnate, as economic conditions in New Zealand keep household budgets constrained. However, historical trends suggest that domestic tourism will hold up comparatively better than international tourism over the off-season, providing some support to local businesses.
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