Commercial registrations and activity
New light and heavy commercial registrations soften in May
12 Jun 2023
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 12 Jun 2023)
New commercial registrations fell 3.0% in May (seasonally adjusted)
New medium commercial registrations fell 16% from April (seasonally adjusted)
Road user charge kilometres purchased for light vehicles fell 21%pa in May
The key numbers...
- New commercial registrations totalled 3,628 in May, a 3.0% decline from the previous month after accounting for seasonal effects. There were 3,141 new light commercial registrations in May, a 2.1% decline from April after seasonal adjustment.
- Heavier vehicle registrations declined more sharply, with new medium commercial registrations down 16% and new very heavy commercial registrations down 3.4% from May (both figures seasonally adjusted).
- Road user charge kilometres purchased totalled 1.35km in May, a 36% decline from May 2022. Over 83% of RUC kilometres purchased were for light vehicles, which were down 39%pa, whereas RUC kilometres purchased for heavy vehicles only fell 14%pa.
New medium commercials start to soften
Annual new medium commercial registrations
...and our reaction
- New commercial registrations were soft across the light, medium, and very heavy segments of the market in May. Softer commercial registrations are not surprising, given high inflation, higher interest rates, slowing construction activity, and a poor outlook for economic growth.
- Annual new light commercial registrations have been easing consistently for the last eight months, and registrations for new medium vehicles have slowed, though very heavy registrations are still holding up for now. It’s likely that the lead time between ordering and registering a commercial vehicle increases as vehicles get larger, due to their use being more specialised and their additional size creating more logistical challenges. Therefore, we anticipate medium commercial registrations will continue to soften, and eventually this trend will filter through to very heavy commercials as well.
- The temporary discounts to road user charges will be removed at the start of July, along with the full reinstatement of the fuel excise duty. We anticipate this change will drive a spike in road user charge kilometres purchased in June, as units will be pre-purchased where possible.
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