Our take on the latest Tourism data (Fri 12 May 2023)
Foreign tourist arrivals total 259,100
Arrivals from China lift to 17% of pre-pandemic levels
Kiwi departures fall to 86% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- Foreign tourist arrivals rebounded to 69% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels in February, arresting the drop-off in the recovery over the past two months.
- The lift was supported by an improving recovery across selected Asian markets. Arrivals from India surged to 136% of pre-pandemic levels in March, and the recovery of arrivals from China lifted from 8% of pre-pandemic levels in February to 17% in March. Similarly, Hong Kong tourist arrivals lifted from 18% of pre-pandemic levels in February to 50%.
- The recovery in Australian tourist arrivals remained fairly stagnant, lifting one percentage point from February to 78% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Arrivals into Auckland and Christchurch continue to increase as a proportion of pre-pandemic levels, reaching 68% and 53% respectively. Arrivals into Queenstown remain above pre-pandemic levels, but eased (for a third consecutive month) to 108%.
- There were 183,300 Kiwi departures in March. Kiwi departures fell from 88% of pre-pandemic levels in February to 86%.
Tourism recovery boosted in March
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- Strong arrival numbers from India, China, and Hong Kong in March provided a much-needed boost, as arrivals across our other major markets continue to stagnate. United States tourist arrivals remained at 76% of pre-pandemic levels, and the recovery of arrivals from Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Germany remained at a plateau.
- Although the 17% figure from China is a positive sign, arrivals are still at a very low level compared to pre-pandemic. Given the sluggish rate of passport renewals and visa processing in China, we expect a slow recovery to persist. Nevertheless, if China were to reach just 25% of pre-pandemic levels in April, it would mean an additional 2,000 arrivals compared to March.
- Cost-of-living challenges and rising interest rates may now be weighing on households’ desire for travel. As pent-up travel demand dissipates and more households face refixing their mortgage at higher interest rates, outbound travel is likely to remain soft.
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