Our take on the latest Tourism data (Fri 14 Apr 2023)
Foreign tourist arrivals total 266,900
Australian arrivals ease to 77% of pre-pandemic levels
Kiwi departures reach 88% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- Foreign tourist arrivals as a proportion of pre-pandemic (2019) levels have edged down for a second consecutive month. The recovery peaked at 68% of pre-pandemic levels in December 2022, and has since eased to 64%, with 266,900 foreign arrivals in February.
- Arrivals from Australia eased from 80% of pre-pandemic levels in January to 77% in February. United States arrivals fell from 100% to 76%. The recovery of arrivals from other key markets including China, Germany, and Canada softened as well.
- Arrivals into Queenstown remain well above pre-pandemic levels, at 119%, but this figure was also down from 122% the previous month. Recovery of arrivals into other airports increased slightly from last month, suggesting that the weakness in Australian arrivals (the only country offering direct flights into Queenstown) is driving the overall stagnation.
- Conversely, Kiwi departures climbed to 88% of pre-pandemic levels in February, with 145,700 departures over the month.
Recovery plateau continues
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- Another month of stagnation in the tourism recovery has affirmed our thinking that arrivals would wind back as global economic conditions deteriorate and the initial rush of pent-up demand subsides. Because New Zealand is a particularly expensive, long-haul destination, we are likely to be among the first to be cut when households overseas tighten their travel budgets.
- Despite an improved outlook for the Chinese economy, arrivals from the country continue to soften. A lack of flight capacity, as well as delays in passport renewals and visa applications, is forcing a more subdued recovery. The China Outbound Tourism Research Institute also believes that an improvement in domestic tourism offerings during the country’s three years of border closure has made international travel a lower priority for Chinese tourists.
- February’s departure figure indicates there is still a strong appetite for overseas travel among Kiwis, despite rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures at home. Because of the delayed effect of monetary policy on household spending, and the reasonably long lead times associated with planning overseas travel, it could be several more months before we begin to see outbound travel moderating.
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