Commercial registrations and activity
Both light and heavy commercial registrations increase in March
11 Apr 2023
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Tue 11 Apr 2023)
New commercial registrations up 2.6% in March (seasonally adjusted)
New heavy commercial registrations up 6.1% from February (seasonally adjusted)
Road user charge kilometres purchased down 2.6%pa in March
The key numbers...
- There were 4,168 new commercial vehicles registered in March, a 2.6% increase from February after adjusting for seasonal effects.
- Registrations of new light commercial vehicles increased 2.7% in March, while registrations of new medium and very heavy commercials increased 6.5% and 5.6% from February respectively (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- March 2022 registrations have now dropped out of the annual running total, resulting in annual new light commercial registrations falling to 32,065 – the lowest level since October 2015.
- Road user charge (RUC) kilometres purchased fell 2.6%pa in March, driven by a 3.9%pa decline in RUC kilometres purchased for light commercial vehicles, with RUC kilometres purchased for heavy vehicles up 4.2%pa.
Annual light commercial registrations drop below COVID-19 lows
New light commercial registrations, annual total
...and our reaction
- Registrations in both the light and heavy segments of the commercial vehicle market increased in March, with new light commercial registrations lifting on a monthly basis for the first time this year. Higher registrations for new heavy commercials merely reinforces a strong start to 2023.
- We anticipate light commercial sales will remain softer as residential construction activity continues to weaken, while heavier commercial registrations will hold up longer, in part due to a longer lead time between ordering and registering a heavy vehicle.
- RUC kilometres purchased edged down from this time last year, but are starting to return to normal, after a substantial increase in RUC kilometres purchased in January was followed by a large decline in RUC purchases in February.
- We expect a similar level of pre-purchasing as the end of the temporary RUC discount approaches in June, unless the government outlines its plans in advance at the upcoming Budget in May.
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