Our take on the latest Tourism data (Tue 14 Mar 2023)
Foreign tourist arrivals total 265,388 in January
Australian tourist arrivals ease to 80% of pre-pandemic levels
Kiwi departures reach 78% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- There were 153,106 Kiwi departures in January 2023, reaching 78% of pre-pandemic (January 2019) levels. Departures were stronger than December, when Kiwi departures were only 73% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Foreign tourist arrivals as a proportion of pre-pandemic levels have been steadily increasing since January 2022, peaking at 68% in December. However, the recovery of tourist arrivals eased slightly in January, with 265,388 foreign tourist arrivals, which was only 67% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Arrivals from Australia eased to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, down from 85% in December. United Kingdom arrivals fell from 85% of pre-pandemic levels in December to 73% in January. The recovery of arrivals from China, South Korea, and France also softened.
- The recovery of arrival numbers into Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington airports faltered too. Queenstown fared better, with arrivals continuing to grow as a proportion of pre-pandemic levels, outnumbering arrivals in January 2019 by 22%.
Arrivals backing off?
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic levels
...and our reaction
- Foreign tourist arrivals weakened in January, while domestic departures strengthened. A strong NZ dollar in January could have encouraged Kiwis to spend their money abroad, as well as deterred foreign tourists on budgets already stretched by weakening global economic conditions.
- It’s too early to say whether this is a definitive turnaround for tourism arrivals, though we expect the recovery to remain modest in the face of a looming global recession. The softening of Australian arrivals was surprising, given that short-haul flights are often favoured in times of economic downturn.
- As the NZ dollar softens further from its January peak and the cost-of-living crisis continues (with food price challenges further exacerbated by Cyclone Gabrielle), the strength of Kiwi departures is likely to moderate.
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