Commercial registrations and activity
Light commercials pull down January registrations
10 Feb 2023
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Fri 10 Feb 2023)
New commercial registrations down 12% in January (seasonally adjusted)
New light commercial registrations down 15% from December (seasonally adjusted)
Road user charges kilometres purchased up 90%pa in January
The key numbers...
- There were 3,032 new commercial vehicles registered in January 2023, a 12% decline from December after accounting for seasonal effects.
- The decline in overall registrations was driven by softer new light commercial vehicles, with only 2,655 registrations recorded in January, a 15% decline from December on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- By contrast, new medium and very heavy commercial vehicle registrations increased 26% and 11% respectively in January (both figures seasonally adjusted). Registrations of new medium and very heavy commercial vehicles totalled 168 and 209 in January respectively.
- The expected end to the discount on road user charges (RUC) in January prompted RUC kilometres purchased to their highest level on record, totalling over 2.3m kilometres in the month, an increase of 90% compared to January 2021.
RUCs being pre-purchased?
Monthly total, kilometres
...and our reaction
- New commercial registrations declined in January, as the light commercial segment softened for the second consecutive month, despite ongoing strength in registrations of heavier commercial vehicles.
- We anticipate light commercial registrations will remain weaker in 2023 and 2024, as residential building consents and construction volumes ease, softening demand for light utility vehicles. The effect of the Clean Car Standard on the commercial vehicle market isn’t clear yet, but some degree of substitution of lighter commercial vehicles for large passenger vehicles or vans seems probable.
- Heavy commercial vehicle registrations remain buoyant, but this strength could be due to a longer lead time between placing an order and vehicle registration. Across the economy, we anticipate spending levels and trade volumes will ease over the next few years, softening retail and wholesale trade and demand for road transport services, resulting in lower registrations of medium and very heavy commercial vehicles.
- The huge increase in RUC kilometres purchased in January is undoubtedly a result of expectations that the RUC discount was being terminated. However, the extension of the discount to June ultimately made pre-purchasing unnecessary. The government will deliver its new budget in May, which should include a decision on whether the temporary cost-of-living transport subsidies will be extended (for the fourth time). If the RUC discount isn’t extended, we would expect higher RUC kilometres purchased in May and June too.
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