Commercial registrations and activity
Commercial sales strong across the board in November
12 Dec 2022
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 12 Dec 2022)
Total new commercials up 6.0% (seasonally adjusted) in November
New light commercials up 6.9% (seasonally adjusted) from October
Total RUC kilometres purchased were flat in November
The key numbers...
- There were 4,198 new commercial vehicles registered in November, an increase of 6.0% (seasonally adjusted) from October.
- Registrations across all vehicle categories were higher than in October, with new light commercials up 6.9% and very heavy commercials up 5.4% (both figures seasonally adjusted).
- New light commercial registrations were just below the average level for a typical November before the introduction of the Clean Car Discount scheme, with 3,645 new light vehicles registered last month, compared to an average of 3,690 each November between 2017 and 2021.
- There were 278 new medium commercial vehicle registrations in November, up 11%pa, taking the annual total to a record-high 3,073 registrations. New very heavy vehicle registrations in the last 12 months have also been strong, staging a complete recovery from the pandemic lows, totalling 2,668 registrations – the fourth highest annual total on record.
- There were 1.3m road user charges (RUC) kilometres purchased in November, equalling November 2021 purchases, meaning the annual total was steady, at 16.7m kilometres purchased.
Very heavy vehicles have fully recovered from COVID-19 disruptions
New very heavy commercial registrations, annual running total
...and our reaction
- November was the strongest month for registrations of light commercial vehicles since the introduction of the Clean Car Discount. Business investment intentions are faltering, as higher interest rates continue to bite and slower economic growth lurks around the corner, but for now a pipeline of over 50,000 residential building consents issued in the last 12 months is supporting demand for light commercial vehicles.
- Demand for heavier vehicles is largely holding up too, with strong non-residential building consents one plausible driver, and ongoing domestic shipping disruptions also boosting registrations of commercial road transport vehicles.
- Activity in the construction industry may not cool as quickly as we initially expected, with construction activity reaching a record-high in the September quarter, despite a strong downturn in the housing market and more rapidly rising interest rates. We anticipate high levels of activity in the construction and commercial road transport sectors will continue to support strong heavy vehicle registrations into the first half of 2023, although light commercial registrations are likely to fall off earlier.
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