Commercial registrations and activity
Light commercials still softer than the pre-Discount norm
10 Nov 2022
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Thu 10 Nov 2022)
New commercials down 1.9% (seasonally adjusted) in October
New medium commercials up 7.3% (seasonally adjusted) in October
Total RUC kilometres purchased were up 4.8%pa in October
The key numbers...
- There were 3,663 new commercial vehicles registered in October, a decline of 1.9% from September after accounting for seasonal effects.
- Light commercials have recovered from the all-time low registration totals after the introduction of the Clean Car Discount, totalling between 3,000-3,500 new vehicle registrations per month for the last three months. However, the Discount scheme has continued to hinder light commercial registrations, with nearly 800 fewer vehicles registered in October 2022 than on average for the year before the Clean Car Discount was introduced.
- New medium commercial vehicle registrations were up 7.3% (seasonally adjusted) in October. October and November are usually very weak months for medium vehicle registrations, but the 269 medium commercial vehicles registered last month produced the strongest October on record.
- Total road user charges (RUC) kilometres purchased in October totalled nearly 1.3m kilometres, a 4.8% increase compared to October 2021, but RUC units were still 40% lower than the recent monthly peak in May 2022, when 2.1m kilometres were purchased (after the reduction in RUC costs occurred).
Light commercials still softer than the pre-Discount norm
Monthly light commercial registrations, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- The Clean Car Discount continued to affect the market for light commercial vehicles in October, with fewer new light commercials being registered since its introduction. Even without considering the cooling effects of the Discount scheme, we still expect weakness in light commercial registrations until the end of December 2024.
- Falling business investment, eventually slowing construction activity, and higher financing costs as a result of rising interest rates all suggest softer light commercial registrations over the next two years.
- Registrations of medium and very heavy commercial vehicles will be slower to turn around, with registrations in both vehicle classes remaining highly elevated compared to October 2021, and we expect the downturn will be more moderate in comparison to other periods of slowing economic activity. For example, in 2008/09, registrations of heavier vehicles declined by about 2,300pa – a 63% fall from the then-peak). We expect a more modest decline in registrations of around 1,500pa between March 2023 and June 2025, representing a 27% fall from the anticipated peak.
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