Our take on the latest Tourism data (Tue 15 Nov 2022)
Tourist arrivals total 151,300 in September
Tourist arrivals rise to 58% of pre-pandemic levels
Kiwi tourist departures at 61% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- Tourist arrivals continue to recover, with 151,300 arrivals in September, up from 129,800 in August 2022. September arrivals amounted to 58% of pre-pandemic (September 2019) arrivals.
- Kiwi tourist departures still outnumber foreign visitor arrivals, but arrivals are catching up quickly. Departures grew from 60% of pre-pandemic levels in August to 61% in September, but arrivals grew from 52% to 58%. Based on the catchup of arrivals, and typical seasonal patterns, we could see arrivals outnumber departures by November.
- Australian arrivals have recovered the fastest to 79% of pre-pandemic levels in September, taking their share of total visitor arrivals to 69% in September 2022 compared to 50% in September 2019. Arrivals from the USA and Canada have recovered admirably too, on the back of enhanced direct flight connectivity. The USA is currently our second largest market, with China knocking itself off the pedestal with sustained hard-line COVID-19 restrictions.
- Arrivals into Queenstown have nearly fully recovered for this time of year, at 99% of pre-pandemic arrivals in September. Wellington arrivals reached 67% of pre-pandemic levels, followed by 52% at Auckland and 49% at Christchurch. Queenstown recorded more arrivals than Wellington and Christchurch combined this quarter.
Strong recovery over 2022
Monthly tourism arrivals as proportions of pre-pandemic level
...and our reaction
- International travel is quickly recovering, with foreign arrivals growing rapidly and set to overtake Kiwi departures before the peak summer season. Spending data shows that this recovery has been led by the ski season in Queenstown-Lakes, and our big cities, but we expect a broader geographic spread as we head into summer.
- Our tourism sector is heading into uncharted territory into the peak season, with the quick recovery in arrivals unmatched by growth in migrant worker arrivals to date. Recent government changes to the Working Holiday Visa scheme are helpful, but are unlikely to have affected work visa arrivals just yet.
- Work visa arrivals recovered to 65% of pre-pandemic levels in September, which is a strong incremental recovery, but insufficient to fill the existing deficit of workers in our tourism hotspots from several years of closed borders.
- At the same time, we may see new patterns of tourist consumption emerge, such as self-driving instead of coach tours, which may stretch resources in different parts of the sector. The rise of visitors from the USA, at the expense of China, is one part of this consumption shift. In addition, higher airfares may further restrict New Zealand to higher-wealth visitors, especially from long-haul markets.
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