Commercial registrations and activity
Light commercial registrations approaching pre-discount norm
10 Oct 2022
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 10 Oct 2022)
New light commercials up 15% (seasonally adjusted) in September
New medium commercials up 11% (seasonally adjusted) in September
New very heavy commercials up 20% (seasonally adjusted) in September
The key numbers...
- There were 432 more new light commercial vehicles registered in September than in August, as 3,447 vehicles were registered last month. This increase was a 15% lift after adjusting for seasonal effects.
- New medium vehicle registrations lifted to 314 in September, up 11% from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- There were 291 new very heavy vehicle registrations in September, which was a 20% increase from August (seasonally adjusted).
- New commercial vehicle registrations have increased in each month over the last quarter. New commercial registrations lifted from 2,887 in July to 3,525 in August and increased again to 4,052 in September.
- Road user charges totalled 1.2m kilometres in September, taking the annual total up to 16.6m. Road user charges were up 8.3% in the September 2022 quarter, compared to September 2021. However, this growth probably overstates the strength of transport activity, with additional purchasing due to the current discount on RUCs, and 2021’s figures being weaker than normal due to the COVID-19 lockdown and restrictions in the second half of the year.
Registrations back to over 10,000 per quarter in September
New commercial vehicle registrations, quarterly running total
...and our reaction
- Registrations of heavier vehicle types were strong again in September, with medium vehicle registrations recording their strongest month since February 2022, and heavy vehicles having their strongest month since December 2021.
- Light commercials have continued to claw their way back from the low registration numbers reported in the months initially following the start of the Clean Car Discount scheme. Registrations of light commercials are now only 30-40 vehicles below the level that would have typically been expected in September before the imposition of the scheme.
- With light commercials vehicles getting close to their pre-discount scheme norm, there seems to be less upside for growth. Additionally, the anticipated slowdown of New Zealand’s domestic economic activity and residential construction sector further limits the likelihood that light commercial vehicles continue to increase.
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