Our take on the latest Tourism data (Wed 12 Oct 2022)
Foreign tourist arrivals at 52% of normal
91,700 Australian arrivals in August
Kiwi departures at 60% of usual levels
The key numbers...
- There was a total of 129,700 tourist arrivals in August, on par with the 134,200 counted the previous month. August arrivals were at 52% of pre-pandemic (August 2019) levels, which is about the same as in July.
- There were 173,800 departures of New Zealanders heading overseas in August. This number was 60% of the 288,600 departures in August 2019, and was marginally up from the 59% recovery as seen in July.
- Our foreign tourism markets have been seeing a consistent recovery towards pre-pandemic levels throughout the year. For example, Australian arrivals were at 32% of their pre-pandemic total in April, and now sit at 76%. Similarly, United States arrivals have gone from 6% (April 2022) to 43% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Ski season demand and the prevalence of Trans-Tasman travel are seen clearly in arrivals by airport. Queenstown’s arrivals have reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels, while Auckland and Wellington reached 45% and 60% respectively in August.
Strong recovery over 2022
Monthly tourism arrivals as proportions of pre-pandemic level
...and our reaction
- Both Kiwi departures and inbound arrivals are climbing back towards their pre-pandemic levels. Net tourism remains negative, with outbound departures numbering 300,000 above arrivals in the last 12 months. There is a significant backlog of tourists waiting for visa approval, so as Immigration NZ works to speed its processing time and we move into the peak summer period, we should see net tourism increase in the coming months.
- Strong arrival numbers in the last two months indicate that the ski season is attracting visitors. Although our tight labour market has made it more difficult for the hospitality industry to keep up with demand, recent government support for the sector, such as loosening of migrant chef qualification requirements, should be helpful in expanding capacity as we prepare to enter the busy summer period.
- Although the recovery in some markets is stronger than in others, there is solid growth in arrival numbers from all countries. French and German arrivals were at 29% and 32% of pre-pandemic levels in August, up from 25% and 27% in July. Japanese arrivals reached only 18% of pre-pandemic levels in August, but with the Japanese border just reopened, we should expect a stronger recovery from this market in late 2022.
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