Commercial registrations and activity
March feebate spike obscures underlying demand for commercials
10 Aug 2022
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Wed 10 Aug 2022)
Commercial registrations down 2.8% from June (seasonally adjusted)
Light commercials down 47%pa in the three months to July
Very heavy commercials up 12%pa in the three months to July
The key numbers...
- Commercial vehicle registrations totalled 3,250 in July, 39% fewer registrations than in July 2021.
- Light commercial vehicle registrations totalled 2,643 in July, up from the previous month, but down 45% from July 2021.
- Medium commercial vehicle registrations were up 5.8%pa in July, as strong growth in the registration of new medium vehicles, up 18%pa, driving the higher level of registrations. By comparison, used medium commercial registrations fell 11% over the last year.
- Very heavy commercial registrations continue to gain momentum, with average monthly registrations over the last year up 15%pa.
- The purchase of road user charges (RUC) fell to 1.2m kilometres in July, the lowest level since January 2022, but the three months to July still saw purchases increase 18%pa.
- Total revenue from RUC purchases totalled $98m in July, a 42% decline from July 2021. This is unsurprising given the low level of units purchased and the ongoing discount, with revenue in July the lowest since September 2012 (excluding mid-2020 lockdown months).
Very heavy registrations continue to grow
Registrations of very heavy commercial vehicles, annual running total
...and our reaction
- Soft light commercial registrations were as expected in July, edging up from June, but weak against the strength of registrations in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
- We estimate 5,500 additional registrations were brought forward to March, to avoid a fee under the Clean Car Discount Scheme, and these additional registrations are likely to be the core driver of ongoing weakness in light commercial registrations in July.
- However, weaker investment intentions and business confidence could also be weighing on light commercial registrations. In addition, the housing market slowdown has become more pronounced and widespread in recent months, and we expect the effects on residential construction will filter through to further weaken the registration of light commercial vehicles next year.
- Medium and very heavy commercial vehicle registrations continue to hold up, although growth is not spectacular. Households spending is holding up better than record-low consumer confidence would suggest, which is driving demand for medium commercials in the wholesale and retail sector. Additionally, the strength of non-residential construction and spending on infrastructure is keeping demand for very heavy construction vehicles high.
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