Our take on the latest Tourism data (Mon 13 Jun 2022)
54,303 foreign tourist arrivals in April
97,093 NZ tourist departures - the largest since Feb 2020
Australian tourist arrivals at 32% of usual monthly level
The key numbers...
- Tourists are beginning to arrive back in New Zealand, with the 54,303 tourists in April representing around 18% of tourist arrivals in pre-pandemic April 2019.
- Arrivals were at their highest since May 2021, when over 57,000 tourists entered New Zealand during the peak month of the Trans-Tasman Bubble.
- Australia was, unsurprisingly, the key component of inbound tourists in April, with the 42,347 travellers from across the ditch equating to 32% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Outbound tourist numbers rose even more strongly, with 97,093 New Zealanders departing overseas, representing 35% of pre-pandemic levels. Departures were the highest since February 2020 – before the pandemic saw borders closed.
More NZ "tourists" leaving than inbound travellers entering
Monthly counts
...and our reaction
- International tourism is being reactivated across New Zealand, albeit at a slow and measured pace.
- Solid returning numbers from Australia are expected to pick up further as we head into the ski season. Tourism is expected to gradually grow, with OAG data showing global flight seat numbers globally have risen back to 70% of pre-pandemic levels.
- More troubling is the sharper rise in departures of NZ tourists overseas – with two possible stories that are equally challenging. Higher genuine tourist departures suggest that overall tourism activity in New Zealand could be sluggish, as the current loss of domestic travel to overseas is currently occurring faster than inbound tourists are making up for it.
- More likely is that the larger number of “tourist” departures are actually Kiwis moving away from the country, as part of the broader brain drain. Our analysis of tourism and migration estimates suggests there is a reasonable likelihood that more of the modelled “unknown” departures in April, that are currently assumed to be tourists, will be shifted into the permanent migrant departure category in coming months.
- The current outflow is the largest monthly net outflow of tourists since mid-2019. Winter usually means more New Zealanders depart for warmer weather than inbound tourists enter for a Kiwi winter.
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