Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 11 Oct 2021)
New light commercials up 57%pa in September
New medium commercials up 44%pa
New very heavy commercials up 3.3%pa
The key numbers...
- Despite the continued Delta outbreak, new commercial vehicle registrations bounced back strongly in September (up 52%pa), after suffering a 39%pa fall in August due to the nationwide lockdown.
- With a total of 11,389 new commercial registrations in the September quarter, activity was 13% higher than in the September 2020 quarter, although 14% lower than we forecast in July.
- New light commercials grew the most in September (up 57%), followed by new medium commercials (up 44%), and new very heavy commercials (up 3.3%pa).
- Used commercials have been suffering and were down 36%pa in the 12 months to September, in contrast to the 25% increase in new commercial registrations over the same period.
Total new commercial registrations
Annual running total, source: NZTA
...and our reaction
- The bounce-back in commercial vehicle registrations in September was expected, although the resilience shown by commercial vehicles is remarkable, especially considering the ongoing economic restrictions in the upper North Island.
- At this stage, business and consumer confidence are in far better shape than immediately following the first lockdown.
- Construction and primary industries are strong drivers of demand, and building consents and commodity prices remain high.
- Buyers are also bringing forward commercial vehicle purchases ahead of the introduction of fees for higher-emitting vehicles next year. The government has delayed this change from January until April due to the Delta outbreak.
- Registrations of used light commercials continue to be constrained by shortages.
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