Commercial registrations and activity
Demand surge expected in second half of 2021
12 Jul 2021
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 12 Jul 2021)
New light commercials fell 4.4% (seasonally adjusted)
New medium commercials eased 1.4% (sa)
New very heavy commercials eased 0.2% (sa)
The key numbers...
- There were 4,651 new commercial vehicle registrations in June 2021, 19% more than in 2020, but 8.1% lower than June 2019.
- Registrations in the June quarter in 2021 were 89% higher than in 2020, but compared with the June 2019 quarter, there was a 0.5% fall in registrations.
- Light commercials were down 4.4% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), medium commercials eased 1.4% (sa) from May, and very heavy commercials eased 0.2% (sa) from May.
- June was a strong month for imports of commercial vehicles. For the year to date, imports are now 70% higher than in 2020, and 2.7% higher than the same period in 2019.
- Total road user charges (kms) were up by 19%pa in the June quarter and up 1.1% from the June 2019 quarter. The growth has been driven by light RUCs, which are up 1.6% from the June 2019 quarter, while heavy RUCs over the same time are down 1.7%.
Imports of commercial vehicles
Cumulative imports; Source, Customs NZ
...and our reaction
- Commercial vehicle registrations are well above levels from last year, although when compared to pre-pandemic levels, they aren’t booming.
- Large volumes of construction work, mainly residential but also infrastructure and some non-residential build types like factories and education, along with strength in commodity prices will keep underlying demand for commercial vehicles strong over the next six months.
- There’s likely to be a surge in demand for utes and vans throughout the rest of 2020 because of customers wanting to avoid the fee that will be added next year due to the clean car discount policy.
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