Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 12 Apr 2021)
New light commercials up 14% (seasonally adjusted)
New medium commercials up 13% (sa)
New very heavy commercials up 19% (sa)
The key numbers...
- March was a strong result across the board for new commercials, with a total of 5,128 registrations in March, 89%pa more than March last year, when deep uncertainty around COVID-19 was slowing the economy.
- New light commercial registrations were up 95%pa (or 14% seasonally adjusted from Feb), new medium commercials were up 51%pa (13% sa), and new very heavy commercials were up 36%pa (19% sa).
- New commercial imports are up 18%pa in the year so far, relieving some of the demand pressure as stocks have been incredibly low over the last six months.
- Nearly 1.5m kilometres of road user charges were bought in March, the second highest number ever after June 2020 when people were in catch-up mode after lockdown.
Road user charges
Millions of kms, annual running total
...and our reaction
- Several factors in the economy are all aligning at once creating stronger demand for commercial vehicles – the vaccine rollout, a residential construction boom, and strong growth in commodity prices.
- The relatively high NZ dollar and strong demand would normally imply strong revenue and profitability for dealers, but the sticky supply lines will be limiting their ability to take advantage of these conditions.
- The recent pick-up in new commercial vehicle imports suggests some relief in supply constraints, but international shipping connections remain patchy.
- Business confidence, essential for commercial vehicle sales, is building more and more every day, and the recent announcement of the Australian-NZ travel bubble will also provide some much-needed relief for the tourism sector.
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