Commercial registrations and activity

Tentative recovery for light commercials

10 Feb 2021

Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Wed 10 Feb 2021)

New light commercials grew 9.2%pa in January
New medium commercials up 1.4%pa
New very heavy commercials tumble 43%pa

The key numbers...

  • A total of 3,985 new commercial vehicles were registered in January, 5.9%pa more than January last year.
  • Light commercials are making a tentative comeback, growing 9.2%pa in January. According to the Motor Industry Association’s (MIA) Common Segmentation report most of this growth came from private buyers, although business demand (the largest component) has also recovered, growing 4.6%pa.
  • Heavier vehicles are still weak, with new very heavy commercials plummeting 43%, their largest drop since April 2020. However, new medium commercial registrations managed some growth, up 1.4% on a year prior.

Light commercial registrations

Annual running total
3851

...and our reaction

  • Demand for light commercials continues to benefit from strong activity in the construction sector and the substitutional spending away from overseas travel.
  • Our February forecasts paint a brighter outlook, especially for 2021, with the improved labour market outlook providing strong private demand for vehicles.
  • Disruptions to trade routes and vehicle imports continue to create supply pressure for commercial vehicles, with recent news showing computer chip shortages may further add to the supply shortage.