Commercial registrations and activity
Summary of a year to forget for commercials
11 Jan 2021
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Mon 11 Jan 2021)
New light commercials fell 7.0%pa in December
New medium commercials fell 5.9%pa in December
New very heavy commercials fell 13%pa in December
The key numbers...
- There were 36,505 new commercial registrations in 2020, down 23%pa from 2019. New commercial registrations fell 9.0%pa in the December quarter, although they only fell 6.5%pa in the December month.
- The declines in light and medium commercial vehicle registrations look steady, down 23%pa and 16%pa respectively over 2020. However, very heavy registrations deteriorated further, with a 24%pa drop over 2020 (a rate of decline which has increased in recent months).
- Total road user charges (RUCs) were down 5.2%pa in 2020. Better activity for farming and construction helped limit the decline in light RUCs to 4.6%pa in 2020. The decline was larger for heavier vehicles, with medium and very heavy commercial RUCs falling 9.2% and 7.7%pa respectively over the year.
Quarterly decline in new commercial registrations during 2020
3-month annual % change
...and our reaction
- Softness in commercial registration activity remains, although things have improved since the first half of 2020.
- COVID-19 drastically changed the demand for transport in 2020. Passenger transport has been decimated by closed borders and retail activity which plummeted during lockdown but spiked afterward. Transport of food exports generally held steady, however forestry and non-food manufacturing exports were affected by demand fluctuations in our trade partners such as China and Australia.
- Looking ahead, 2021 presents both opportunities and risks. The quicker borders reopen – sped up by vaccination –the quicker the recovery will be. However, a sustained deterioration in the tourism sector, leading to a weaker labour market, is hurting the economy. Meanwhile, threats of further outbreaks remain pertinent as new virus strains emerge.
Latest updates
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Commercial registrations and activity
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Mon 13 Jul 2026
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1.2%pa Light commercial registrations fall in the June 2026 quarter
19%pa Medium commercial registration fall in the June 2026 quarter
10%pa Very heavy comm. registrations rise in the June 2026 quarterPremium
Commercial registrations and activity
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Mon 13 Apr 2026
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48%pa Light commercial registrations jump in the March 2026 month-17%pa Medium commercial registration fall in the March 2026 quarter
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Medium and very heavy commercial registrations still falling
Tue 13 Jan 2026
Quarterly
Quarterly very heavy registrations down 26%pa in Dec 2025Quarterly medium registrations down 18%pa in Dec 2025Quarterly light commercial registrations up 9.5%pa in Dec 2025Commercial registrations and activity
Light vehicle demand leaves heavy commercials behind
Fri 10 Oct 2025
Quarterly
Very heavy registrations down 38%pa in Sep 2025 quarterMedium registrations down 14%pa in Sep 2025 quarterLight commercial registrations up 25%pa in Sep 2025 quarter