Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Thu 10 Dec 2020)
New light commercials fell 4.8%pa in November
New medium commercials grew 1.1%pa
New very heavy commercials fell 27%pa
The key numbers...
- There were 3,272 new commercial registrations in November, down 5.7%pa from November last year.
- New light commercials, which made up 90% of total commercial registrations in November, were down 4.8%pa.
- New medium commercials were up 1.1%pa, but this rise was not enough to make up for recent declines, and activity was still down by 17%pa for the three months to November.
- Very heavy vehicle registrations continued their decline, down by 27%pa for November and 19%pa over the three months to November.
New very heavy commercial registrations
Annual running total
...and our reaction
- The fall in commercial registrations was slightly softer than in the past few months. New light and medium commercials held up reasonably well, although very heavy commercials continue their decline.
- Light commercial registrations are being dragged down by rental car registrations which, according to MIA’s common segmentation report, were down 71%pa (or 327) in November. Outside of rentals, light commercials held up reasonably well.
- Investment in heavy vehicles remains low, with too many unanswered questions still surrounding COVID-19, the vaccine, and the broader economic outlook. We expect heavy commercial registrations to continue dropping away, particularly given that the fall, when compared to the drop after the Global Financial Crisis, is relatively modest so far.
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