Commercial registrations and activity
Investment intentions in transport remain weak
11 Nov 2020
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Wed 11 Nov 2020)
New light commercials fell 14%pa in October
New medium commercials fell 27%pa
New very heavy commercials fell 23%pa
The key numbers...
- Total new commercial registrations were down 16%pa in October, caused by weakness across all weight classes.
- Medium and very heavy commercials have fared the worst, dropping 27% and 23%pa respectively.
- Total road user charges volumes fell 2.4% in October, losing some of its gains from September. Road user charges are still 5.9% below their peak in February 2020.
- Annual heavy vehicle road user charges, which are a lot more variable, are down 7.3% since the start of the year.
Road user charges
Annual running total, kms
...and our reaction
- Total commercial vehicle registrations have been softening since mid-2019 and then crashed since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the economy. Recent commercial registration and road user charges data suggests this downwards trend is still happening.
- Road user charges have not recovered their losses since lockdown, particularly for heavy vehicles, despite freight only being heavily affected during Level 4 lockdown.
- Economic activity in general has recovered well since lockdown but investment intentions are showing commercial operations expect sustained softer activity over the short-term.
- A softer outlook for our export commodities and riding out the construction boom are the biggest threats to commercial registrations, although strength in asset prices encouraging further investment provides upside risks.
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