Our take on the latest Tourism data (Tue 14 Jul 2020)
Tourist arrivals remain down 99% pa
Tourist departures also down 99% pa
Trans-Tasman travel bubble unlikely in 2020
The key numbers...
- Unsurprisingly, both tourist arrivals and departures were only at 1% of 2019 levels in May, with the border remaining closed to all but returning Kiwis, apart from very limited exceptions.
- Total tourist arrivals increased slightly, from 1,700 during lockdown in April to 2,100 in May.
- Departures of New Zealanders slightly exceeded tourist arrivals in both April and May.
Tourist arrivals and departures
Annual % change
...and our reaction
- The (very slight) uptick in tourist numbers corresponds to an increase in the number of flights to New Zealand, as international airlines resume limited services.
- With more overseas-based Kiwis coming back home, and more exemptions for work purposes, the increase in “tourist” numbers likely represents a rise in short-term workers or returning Kiwis who will not yet be considered to have “migrated”.
- With a resurgence in COVID-19 cases recently, there is a receding possibility of a trans-Tasman travel bubble, making any meaningful change in tourism numbers highly unlikely for the remainder of 2020.
- Similarly, a possible Pacific travel bubble is likely to be of minimal benefit to the New Zealand tourism industry and might in fact negatively affect domestic tourism activity in the near term, as Kiwis take their spending offshore.
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