Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Fri 10 Jul 2020)
New light commercials down 24%pa
New medium commercials down 4%pa
New very heavy commercials down 19%pa
The key numbers...
- There were 3,907 new commercial vehicles registered in June 2020, down 23% (or 1,156) from June 2019.
- Total commercial registrations for the June quarter were 6,946, down 47% from the June quarter in 2019, although still about 1,600 more than we were predicting back in April, because New Zealand recovered from the COVID-19 health crisis sooner than expected.
- Purchases of road user charges for total heavy vehicles grew 13%pa in June as the commercial vehicle workforce was busy dealing with pent up demand following lockdown.
Total new commercial vehicle registrations
3 month annual % changes
...and our reaction
- We see uncertainty about when New Zealand can re-integrate with the outside world and the deteriorating domestic labour market as the biggest factors putting downward pressure on commercial vehicle sales.
- Registrations of heavy commercials have bounced back better than anticipated. Bulk exports of forestry have recovered quite remarkably since lockdown thanks to a recovery in demand from China while dairy has sustained steady growth throughout the year.
- The overall drop in commercial registration numbers will probably not be as bad as we first feared, although we still expect total registration numbers to continue falling away throughout the year.
Latest updates
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Commercial registrations and activity
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1.2%pa Light commercial registrations fall in the June 2026 quarter19%pa Medium commercial registration fall in the June 2026 quarter
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Medium and very heavy commercial registrations still falling
Tue 13 Jan 2026
Quarterly
Quarterly very heavy registrations down 26%pa in Dec 2025Quarterly medium registrations down 18%pa in Dec 2025Quarterly light commercial registrations up 9.5%pa in Dec 2025Commercial registrations and activity
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Fri 10 Oct 2025
Quarterly
Very heavy registrations down 38%pa in Sep 2025 quarterMedium registrations down 14%pa in Sep 2025 quarterLight commercial registrations up 25%pa in Sep 2025 quarter