Commercial registrations and activity
A tough time for the transport sector
14 Apr 2020
Our take on the latest Commercial registrations and activity (Tue 14 Apr 2020)
New light commercials down 43%pa
New medium commercials down 25%pa
New very heavy commercials down 36%pa
The key numbers...
- The total number of new commercial vehicle registrations crashed 42%pa in March, the biggest monthly decline recorded since a 43%pa decline in January 2009.
- Light commercial vehicle registrations fell the furthest, slumping 43%pa.
- New commercial registrations are now 10%pa lower for the year-ended March 2020, as the severe decline in March exacerbates weakness in recent months.
- Road user charges for all heavy vehicles fell 14%pa in March, the biggest monthly decline since 2008.
New light commercial registrations
Annual % change
...and our reaction
- March 2020 was the worst month for vehicle registrations since the Global Financial Crisis.
- New vehicle registrations in April will be worse, as the country will have been in lockdown for a longer period than in March.
- We don’t expect a recovery in commercial vehicle registrations anytime soon; even after the lockdown has been lifted, international and domestic demand for goods and services will remain subdued as the effects of the lockdown and New Zealand’s border closure ripple through the economy.
- The re-opening of New Zealand’s borders, probably 12 months from now, will provide some impetus for the economy, but even then, it will be a long journey to recovery.
- Resilience in agriculture will provide the biggest buffer for the New Zealand economy and if China manages to deter another outbreak, their earlier recovery will benefit our export sectors.
Latest updates
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Commercial registrations and activity
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Fri 10 Oct 2025
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Very heavy registrations down 38%pa in Sep 2025 quarterMedium registrations down 14%pa in Sep 2025 quarterLight commercial registrations up 25%pa in Sep 2025 quarter